Experience also teaches that, in trying to assess the likely outcome of any debate about shortlists, it always makes most sense to look not so much at the books in contention as the judges on the panel. Will they favour more or different? Are they pro-hedgehog or pro-fox? Such is the contemporary power of some book prizes, far more persuasive than almost any amount of review coverage, that any winner becomes automatically a more and a hedgehog, the proud possessor of “one big thing”.